NewStats: 3,264,688 , 8,184,419 topics. Date: Thursday, 12 June 2025 at 03:52 AM 2z2p56

emmaodet:


My concern with stocks like betaglass and vitafoam is the business itself.
Vitafoam is not your everyday consumption. You buy it once and for the next 10 years, you may not need another one coupled with the fact that there are many competitors I. The market.
So the earnings may not be consistent.
For Betaglass, the long term sustainability is shaky because government is forcing companies to be switching away from bottles.
I am even surprised that they made grate sales in Q1/25.
Not only did they sell a lot of what they produced, their inventory went down alot which is impressive.
Wondered what happened between January and March to warrant that since it is not festive period when people drink a lot.
But what is obvious is their operating leverage.
Since management and companies have little to none control over cost of goods affecting gross margins, the bulk of reducing operating expenses lies on good management of a company which they have proved.
That is a good management there

Their Biggest Cutomers is NB, it is likely that NB stockpiled packaging inventory in Q1.

Sunrisepebble:
Those who followed me to buy Vitafoam when I was hawking it at N22. congratulations on 100% ROI

Bought at #17

Sunrisepebble:
MTNN is a N350-400 stock in my opinion. I think they will do very close to N1.5trn revenue and N150+bn PAT

Been saying here since. Thank God Someone else is seeing it.

1.5trn in Q1 would be huge but possible.
I am looking at 1.3tr, which is the highest in a Quarter so far. they did 988bn last quarter.

Princkez:
Haaaaa.....
LAFARGE #4 interim dividend ooooo

Please where are you seeing this from?

Is there a way we can listen to or watch Lafarge's AGM tomorrow ?

Does anyone have a link?

emmaodet:


For Osita ....
See below pics

For emmaewumi, didn't snap it but you can always access cash-backed loans from brokers e.g united capital.

This is very helpful. If this is the only thing i learnt today, that's more than enough. Thanks a lot, Bless your heart

emmaodet:


Using 20m in mutual funds at 20% interest rate given 4m per annum as profit as an example.
It means you will have to take a loan that both the yearly interest and one third of the principal can be paid yearly, total payable in 3 years.
Which means you can take a 7m loan and invest in stock payable in 3 years without external cash been used to clear the debt.
1st year, you pay 2.1m interest and 1.9m principal, balance 5.1m.
2nd year, you pay 1.5m interest, 2.5m principal, balance 2.6m
3rd year you clear the loan with roughly 500k cash balance.
Which brings us to the next question - inflation and devaluation in 3 years so as not to render your initial capital useless at the long run.....

Please It would be helpful if you can quote the place Ositadinma and emmanuelewumi taught about this, i will really appreciate that

megawealth01:
If you bought my 5th stock's recommendation, don't be in a rush to sell as it rises. Give it a little time before selling unless you have urgent need for funds. Please keep it for at least 6 months...

Do your own research

Please remind us the stock again

Why is NAHCO with a 10% dividend yield at this price selling off

emmanuelewumi:



Don't cherry pick, better to dollarize the revenue and profit from 2020 to 2024 to find out if there is growth.


You didn't look at the improved efficiency and profitability from 2020 to 2024.

Return on equity increased from 7% in 2020 to 64% in 2024.

Profit margin increased from 4% in 2020 to 24% in 2024.

An investor who got a dividend of N2.54 million last year who will now get a dividend of N5.94 million from the same number of shares will tell you that his dividend income from the stock beat currency devaluation between last year and now

I agree with you. Your numbers are correct.

My point is that you can't use past 5 yrs performance to forecast the next 3-5 years. You have to look at the 3 factors that fueled that type of growth in the past, and discount for it In your projection cause this may no longer be the case.

In Being Paranoid, Management trying to diversify to other areas (hospitality, Logistics etc) will tell you they're looking for growth in other areas. There's limit to how far they could grow depending on price increases alone. And this worries me a bit.

Bigdeal01:
Betaglass declared divided of N1.40k from EPS of N22.70k. This is way too poor. What do shareholders gain from companies like this? Capital appreciation?

2023 they paid N1.17k from EPS of N10.74k

It's their Culture of low payout. Management argues they need to retain earings because of the capital intensive nature of the Bussiness. They never wants to borrow to fund capital investments.

emmanuelewumi:



Look at the compounded annualized earning growth from 2020 to 2024, from 2021 to 2024, from 2022 to 2024, then year on year earning growth from 2023 to 2024.

The trend will give you an idea if earning growth is slowing down or increasing and what to forecast for the next 3 to 5 years

If you Dollarize the Revenue, it is not as spectacular at it looks in Naira.
The Bussiness depends on Flight volumes it handles and Price increase. If you look at the Flight volumes it reports on the backpage, it's been quite sticky (no growth).
The past performance has been blend of Hike in Handling rates (2021), Fx(2023-2024) and Covid Recovery(2020-2021) volumes.
2025 will look good with the return of Fly Emirates to Nigeria in Oct last year (one of their biggest customers) and possible successful 400% hike in Domestic handling rates they are currently pushing for.

But using past performance to project the Next 3-5 years will be hard, because with stable volumes, how far can they push for more Price increases going forward, if fx remains stable.

Streetinvestor2:
You have serious believe in the current management. ... 50%
Let see how q1 2025 will be then

Close to a quarter of the Bussiness is owned by the current Chairman Dr Fadeni (Indirectly), through his family run Bussiness Godsmart. They are paying out 90% Eps as Dividend, the Incentive is there. Dr Fadeni Will run that Company like his baby.

I'm big on the Insider Ownership. 70% of my thesis is on it, so that's what my eyes is on.

BabsO2:


Just hearing LI LU from you. Who is he?
Just saw a video yesterday of Toyota's $13,000 EV being launched. Excellent Videos. Even in Naija at the price one is tempted to buy. The EV world is going to be very competitive in the coming years at the rate it's going it may crash oil prices and crush oil companies!

Watch this Documentary


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6kQmoAke2A

BabsO2:


It will be nice to see why he invested in BYD.

Sold something and bought just a little more UBA. Could not resist the N37 that has a N3 dividend attached. Also knowing the last rights which I didn't take was done at N35. A nice point I hope,

Do you know about LI LU?
He's the Only Guy that Carlie Munger trusted with his Investment.

LI LU has been an Investor in BYD since early 2000 before they started making Cars. He must have influenced Warren as well.

KarlTom:
2.34bn worth of shares traded in MTNN.

Wagwan

Some Analyst working with Brokers are still updating their recommendations on MTN. I have only read SBG report with a Target Price of #330, the report is very detailed and the Analsyst is damn Good.
People are taking positions now before the market starts moving. I heard a businessman I knew has gotten up to 5M shares in the last few days.

MTN is a 400 Naira Stock, but DYOR and have a patient capital.

Obviouslyblunt:
I personally would go for the A15 over a he A16. If not anything, that dimensity processor is way faster than the Helio g99 on the A16. Go for the A15 5G

Thank you a lot

Looking to buy between a new
A15 5G 6GB RAM
or
A16 4G 6GB RAM

Which should I go For?

Any Reviews would be appreciated

missyojo

PharmAlfred:
Big buyers are busy accumulating MTN. It has been trading at a certain range daily. The moment they are done, you will have to buy MTN at N300+. Keep an eye on it.

MTN is a N400 + Stock
The Negative Equity in its book is the reason Institutional investors are not interested, also because they were burnt last year so the market hates uncertainty currently in the business.
But if you look at MTN, they will easily clear the Negative Equity before 2026YE.

Their Revenue in FY 2024 will be N3.2T+, if they do even a 30% Revenue Increase on that for 2025FY that's over N4T in 2025.
For a business that has done a 15% - 18% profit margin in the Last 5 years (their Margin will likely expand to 20% with the Tariff increase), that's over N800B in Earnings for FY 2025.

MTN traded above 10x earnings in the last 5 years.
do 10x of N800B and compare that to the current M.cap

DYOR (I could be wrong you know)

KarlTom:
Not to burst your bubble but I keep seeing the bolded wrt CONHALL.

I do not think they have any intention to sell off their holdings in ARADEL so long may 'the loot' continue...

Does CHI own stake in Aradel?
Please knindly point me to your Source

KarlTom:
Not to burst your bubble but I keep seeing the bolded wrt CONHALL.

I do not think they have any intention to sell off their holdings in ARADEL so long may 'the loot' continue...

Please reconfirm this Info. From what i checked, It's Aradel who Owns about 2.7B shares in CONHALL, not the other way around.

Please correct me if I'm wrong and kindly point me to the right source of your Info.

emmanuelewumi:



The CFO had a question and answer session with journalists last week it is on YouTube.

You can Google it

Do you mean the one with CFA Society Nigeria?

It's for Students who are working on CFA Equity Research Competition.

emmanuelewumi:




According to you the purported N300 billion revenue forecast in 2029 is not possible.

They made a revenue forecast of N39 billion for 2024 but achieved N53 billion

Presco made a full year EPS forecast of N49 for 2024 but achieved N104

Don't joke with companies that are modest with their projections

Q1 2025 result prove if they still have room for growth.

They make the Nairs equivalent of between $10,000 to $20,000 per foreign aircraft they handle .

They are also diversifying into cargo handling of the exportation of agricultural produce

They both beat their 2024 forecast by high margins because:
They both benefited from Naira losing over 40% in 2024.
For Presco specifically, International Palm Oil price Increased in a lot this year, so it's 2 circular Tailwinds for them.
If Naira remain stable, it will tune down their Music.

I own both businesses and still adding to my position every Month.

Streetinvestor2:
None..lol.Na for naija dem dey make the money

No It's a dollar business. Has everything to do with FX.

emmanuelewumi:



EPS increased from 20k in 2020 to N6.60k in 2024. That is over 100% compounded annualized earning growth rate

Going forward I assume a compounded annualized earnings growth rate of 30% for the next 5 years

Justified forward PE should not be less than 12

That's over 500B M.Cap in five years?

I want to argue that, but your estimates are very conservative... I think it's possible if Naira doesn't strengthen, cause naira weakness and Covid recovery is the reason behind the high compounded Growth rate we've seen in the past 5 years.

If Naira Remains stable your Estimate will look overstated.

emmanuelewumi:



At N97.6 EPS it should get to N900 or thereabout. I don't use average 5 years PE.

I use justified PE based on the return on equity, earning growth and the spread between the Return on Invested Capital and risk free yield of about 20% on FGN bond

Can you kindly share or Unpack how you use this Justified PE, Sir. Use any example you are very comfortable with

Emndy:


See the call option in yellow, callable after 36months.

Thanks

emmanuelewumi:



It appears you did not read the offer documents.

The clause is there

Thanks, I only saw the abridged version

emmanuelewumi:
2025 forecast for the Oil Plantation in Ghana

Revenue GHC 752 million (N78 billion)
Gross profit GHC 377 million (N39 billion)
Operating profit GHC 376 million (N29 billion)


2025 forecast for Presco.
Revenue grew at a compounded annualized growth rate of 52% from 2019 to date, it actually grew by 88% between 2023 and 2024. For the purpose of this forecast I will use 40% revenue growth,.
Gross margin for 2024 was 76% but I will use 70%, Operating margin for 2024 was 62.5% but I will use 55%

Revenue N224 billion
Gross profit N157 billion
Operating profit N123 billion.

Combined 2025 Operating profit of Presco and that of the business in Ghana will be
N123 billion+N 29 billion = N152 billion which is a conservative estimate

Presco currently has a debt of N58 billion the corporate bond will increase it to N158 billion. The total debt will about the same value with the estimated operating profit for 2025

With this there is a very high probability that the corporate bond will be liquidated between 3 and 4 years

Liquidating the Corporate Bond before 7 years would depend on the type of Bond issued.

emmanuelewumi:
2025 forecast for the Oil Plantation in Ghana

Revenue GHC 752 million (N78 billion)
Gross profit GHC 377 million (N39 billion)
Operating profit GHC 376 million (N29 billion)


2025 forecast for Presco.
Revenue grew at a compounded annualized growth rate of 52% from 2019 to date, it actually grew by 88% between 2023 and 2024. For the purpose of this forecast I will use 40% revenue growth,.
Gross margin for 2024 was 76% but I will use 70%, Operating margin for 2024 was 62.5% but I will use 55%

Revenue N224 billion
Gross profit N157 billion
Operating profit N123 billion.

Combined 2025 Operating profit of Presco and that of the business in Ghana will be
N123 billion+N 29 billion = N152 billion which is a conservative estimate

Presco currently has a debt of N58 billion the corporate bond will increase it to N158 billion. The total debt will about the same value with the estimated operating profit for 2025

With this there is a very high probability that the corporate bond will be liquidated between 3 and 4 years

I like the way you do back of the Envelope Analysis and it is always accurate and yet conservative.
This is very Insightful, Thanks for sharing

Sunrisepebble:
For Presco, they aim to pay for half of the acquisition this year. Will the profits from the Ghana plant start accruing to them or until the transaction is fully completed?

It's a $125M Deal, $65M initial Deposit.

40% of the GOPDC Revenue come from Rubber Exports (USD revenue).
The Asset Generated Operating Profit of $12.7M in 2023, $17M projected in 2024.

Even if the Operating profit remains stagnant at $17M (but it will always grow), the Asset will pay off itself in 10-12 years with no additional input from Presco, then they own it forever.

The Asset is being financed by a N150bn bond program with a c.24% coupon, if the Naira weakens, it gets paid off faster.

The deal is likely not a negotiated deal because the Majority Foreign Owners of Presco own the GOPDC Assets, they want to consolidate their ownership, so its almost a steal for Presco.

I may be wrong with my Analysis

HesInMe:
See correct biz. Numbers don't lie. Instead people will be trying to "Cham" us into buying 20% gross margin trap. Presco's only problem is valuation. My secret hope is that they will allow us convert their debt into equity at a discount down the line.

Buy High Quality at a Fair Price