NewStats: 3,265,496 , 8,186,982 topics. Date: Sunday, 15 June 2025 at 11:04 AM 4a47y

HesInMe:
Good luck. When we look back, it'll either be one of the sagest investment bets you've ever made (because expectations are low) or one of the dumbest (expectations are appropriately low).

Well, looking at it from the pessimistic side,
Might not ve been the best, but won't say it's dumb at all not to even mention the dumbest....
seems entry price of 1.93-1.95 is at a resistance level.

Worst case, he gets back his Capital if it never appreciates.(which I doubt).

return OF capital is almost guaranteed than return ON Capital for him.

He only looses an opportunity cost not necessarily face value of Capital.

Based on his volume, even a poor 5%-20% increase within the entire year relative to his expectation of over 200%+ and not even beating current inflation data, the face value alone on that 10-20% can aid a substantial project for the year and it's highly achievable.

Not even dumb at all from my end.

chimex38:

Well, looking at it from the pessimistic side,
Might not ve been the best, but won't say it's dumb at all not to even mention the dumbest....
seems entry price of 1.93-1.95 is at a resistance level.

Worst case, he gets back his Capital if it never appreciates.(which I doubt).

return OF capital is almost guaranteed than return ON Capital for him.

He only looses an opportunity cost not necessarily face value of Capital.

Based on his volume, even a poor 5%-20% increase within the entire year relative to his expectation of over 200%+ and not even beating current inflation data, the face value alone on that 10-20% can aid a substantial project for the year and it's highly achievable.

Not even dumb at all from my end.

Well analysed

leparj:
It appears you don't realize where you are here.
You are in the midst of many shrewd eagle eyed men and women.
Your chances of ever scamming anyone here is almost zero.
You can move on and try your luck in
another forum.

This is more of comedy than scam and most will see it as such. Anyone who gets scammed by this is extremely credulous and gullible. I think his intention is simply to beg in a funny way but it's in bad taste.. can be interpreted as scam by some just like you did

Sunrisepebble:
“Bidvest Risks Moody’s Downgrade Over Access Bank Takeover. Raising worries of Access Bank to properly fund the bank amid takeover plans.”

https://businesspost.ng/banking/bidvest-risks-moodys-downgrade-over-access-bank-takeover/

More like Nigerian negative factors..

Currency, volatile economy,etc
Less influential Connections of Accesss HoldCo owners wrt Bidvest group owners,etc.
Bidvest had a higher rating than Access bank pre-aquisition
(i think including any FUGZ bank in Nigeria as well).

It only makes sense to downgrade it to the rating of it's new owners.

Not necessarily that Access Bank has defaulted or gone broke suddenly..

Just Nigerian factor
Vs South African factor.

My thoughts.

emmanuelewumi:
2025 forecast for the Oil Plantation in Ghana

Revenue GHC 752 million (N78 billion)
Gross profit GHC 377 million (N39 billion)
Operating profit GHC 376 million (N29 billion)


2025 forecast for Presco.
Revenue grew at a compounded annualized growth rate of 52% from 2019 to date, it actually grew by 88% between 2023 and 2024. For the purpose of this forecast I will use 40% revenue growth,.
Gross margin for 2024 was 76% but I will use 70%, Operating margin for 2024 was 62.5% but I will use 55%

Revenue N224 billion
Gross profit N157 billion
Operating profit N123 billion.

Combined 2025 Operating profit of Presco and that of the business in Ghana will be
N123 billion+N 29 billion = N152 billion which is a conservative estimate

Presco currently has a debt of N58 billion the corporate bond will increase it to N158 billion. The total debt will about the same value with the estimated operating profit for 2025

With this there is a very high probability that the corporate bond will be liquidated between 3 and 4 years

I like the way you do back of the Envelope Analysis and it is always accurate and yet conservative.
This is very Insightful, Thanks for sharing

Ding

emmanuelewumi:
2025 forecast for the Oil Plantation in Ghana

Revenue GHC 752 million (N78 billion)
Gross profit GHC 377 million (N39 billion)
Operating profit GHC 376 million (N29 billion)


2025 forecast for Presco.
Revenue grew at a compounded annualized growth rate of 52% from 2019 to date, it actually grew by 88% between 2023 and 2024. For the purpose of this forecast I will use 40% revenue growth,.
Gross margin for 2024 was 76% but I will use 70%, Operating margin for 2024 was 62.5% but I will use 55%

Revenue N224 billion
Gross profit N157 billion
Operating profit N123 billion.

Combined 2025 Operating profit of Presco and that of the business in Ghana will be
N123 billion+N 29 billion = N152 billion which is a conservative estimate

Presco currently has a debt of N58 billion the corporate bond will increase it to N158 billion. The total debt will about the same value with the estimated operating profit for 2025

With this there is a very high probability that the corporate bond will be liquidated between 3 and 4 years

Liquidating the Corporate Bond before 7 years would depend on the type of Bond issued.

NASCON

KarlTom:
NASCON

As in... Who vex my Nascon ? Shey na Currentprice 😁😁?

NettyNelly:


Liquidating the Corporate Bond before 7 years would depend on the type of Bond issued.

See the call option in yellow, callable after 36months.

The movement is a pleasant sight...

Ginalex:
As in... Who vex my Nascon ? Shey na Currentprice 😁😁?

KarlTom:
The movement is a pleasant sight...

It refused to obey sugar this time around

NettyNelly:


Liquidating the Corporate Bond before 7 years would depend on the type of Bond issued.

It appears you did not read the offer documents.

The clause is there

KarlTom:
The movement is a pleasant sight...

But can Nascon & Dangsug movement be sustained

Ellahlakes sha no wan free move significantly upward or downward sha.

See Nason and dangcem gra gra just calm down within few minutes

Overtaking is allowed...

Ginalex:
It refused to obey sugar this time around

emmanuelewumi:
2025 forecast for the Oil Plantation in Ghana

Revenue GHC 752 million (N78 billion)
Gross profit GHC 377 million (N39 billion)
Operating profit GHC 376 million (N29 billion)


2025 forecast for Presco.
Revenue grew at a compounded annualized growth rate of 52% from 2019 to date, it actually grew by 88% between 2023 and 2024. For the purpose of this forecast I will use 40% revenue growth,.
Gross margin for 2024 was 76% but I will use 70%, Operating margin for 2024 was 62.5% but I will use 55%

Revenue N224 billion
Gross profit N157 billion
Operating profit N123 billion.

Combined 2025 Operating profit of Presco and that of the business in Ghana will be
N123 billion+N 29 billion = N152 billion which is a conservative estimate

Presco currently has a debt of N58 billion the corporate bond will increase it to N158 billion. The total debt will about the same value with the estimated operating profit for 2025

With this there is a very high probability that the corporate bond will be liquidated between 3 and 4 years

Thanks for the breakdown.
With this calculation, I will add more shares of presco

Willie2015:


At last ....
Don dey trap for inside
With my Afolabi units..

You like to roll with the big boiz

KarlTom:
Overtaking is allowed...

What happened to
"Dont outshine your master"

KarlTom:
NASCON

any news??

Master was not willing to shine anyways...

chimex38:

What happened to
"Dont outshine your master"

I dont think so and im not sure if the movement will be sustained without news or results. But note, last week I mentioned that two of my ogas who I usually get gist from had bought it. So I followed the big money. They just felt 29-32 was a good entry

SAK:
any news??

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2025/01/15/ghl-how-fbns-recklessness-almost-killed-93-on-oil-rig/

Its as if Otedola is going to seize this Oil well

KarlTom:
Master was not willing to shine anyways...

Correct.

When three elephants fight...

Sunrisepebble:
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2025/01/15/ghl-how-fbns-recklessness-almost-killed-93-on-oil-rig/

Its as if Otedola is going to seize this Oil well

Sunrisepebble:
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2025/01/15/ghl-how-fbns-recklessness-almost-killed-93-on-oil-rig/

Its as if Otedola is going to seize this Oil well

Why are doing this to our Elephant. Our Dear and precious ELEPHANT

emmanuelewumi:



It appears you did not read the offer documents.

The clause is there

Thanks, I only saw the abridged version

Based on historical PE and Q4/FY25 results. I have similar target prices.
Presco had a 9m EPS of N51.77, on annualised basis, that comes to N69. I believe their Q4 should be strong with O prices trading closer to all time highs during the period, so perhaps they outperform that final N69. Based on historical PE of 9.5. Comes to about 665. Historically dividend payout ratio has been between 70-80%. With the acquisition perhaps we should tilt expectations to the downside a little perhaps a 65% payout? They could pay N40 a share based on that, if its a 50% payout then N35 is not a bad dividend if you bought around N400. This is just based off FY24 results

NAHCO, an annualised 9M EPS of 471K gives 628k for the FY, based on 5y historical PE of 9x gives a fair value of N56.5. But they made a 300k EPS in Q3, assuming they make even 250k. that gives a final earnings per share of about 721k and based on our PE of 9x, a fair value of about N65. Including the dividend factor, last two years payout ratio has been close to 90%. Using 721k, dividend can b N6.3 per share, using conservative 628k, dividend can be N5.5. Assuming the same historical payout ratio. Representing a yield of 11-12% based on current prices

emmanuelewumi:



N800 for Presco

N80 for Nahco

Emndy:


See the call option in yellow, callable after 36months.

Thanks

LIVESTOCKS

Sunrisepebble:
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2025/01/15/ghl-how-fbns-recklessness-almost-killed-93-on-oil-rig/

Its as if Otedola is going to seize this Oil well

https://www.thecable.ng/ghl-we-dont-owe-first-bank-225m/

Dangcem on freefall. them don comot the wedge