NewStats: 3,264,056 , 8,182,445 topics. Date: Monday, 09 June 2025 at 01:12 PM 4yd2y

The Iranian strike on Nevatim and Tel Nof Airfields (and other targets) in Israel on Tuesday completely validated my analysis from April.

https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1780089205399650349?t=ihpm0Lh-6LgTe__CGwXKRQ&s=19
See below

In April the Iranians demonstrated they could defeat Israel's BMD system at will and strike precision targets - this time they did damage.⬇️

Video of the engagement suggests that the vast majority of the Iranian salvo - probably more than 80% - penetrated and struck targets in Israel. There was once again no indication of any significant midcourse defensive effort, and terminal-phase defensive fire was sporadic and ineffective.

Israeli defensive fire in fact appears to have been significantly lighter than in April, which I suspect can be chalked up to two things. First, the Iranians attacked with little to no warning and Israeli heavy SAM batteries (contra their Iron Dome systems) were likely at reduced readiness. Second, the Israelis may have fired off the majority of their available ammunition defending against the attack in April, and given diversions of missiles to Ukraine and the generally glacial pace of new ammunition coming out of Raytheon's factories, it may not have been entirely or even partially replaced as of October 1st.

The Iranian attack put several warheads into hangars and flight lines at Nevatim that we know about, with imagery of Tel Nof still under embargo and presumably being sanitized ahead of release - a damning state of affairs. The Iranians can be expected to have damaged aircraft, infrastructure, SAM systems, and AD radars at both airfields, as well as hitting several other targets elsewhere in the country less intensively.

The effectiveness of the strike can be seen by simply observing the Israeli reaction - rather than an immediate counterattack they have withdrawn for deliberations, with some talk of a deescalatory downward-step retaliation against the Houthis or Hezbollah. The reason for this is simple - the Iranians have now demonstrated the ability to overwhelm the Israeli AD system at will and precisely strike targets, and with their missile shield ineffective the Israeli leadership is coming to with the fact they run a small and isolated country with a limited amount of critical infrastructure. At this point the Ayatollah can push a button and turn the lights out in Israel, and no amount of American money can prevent that.

As an aside, the Wasp ARG in the Mediterranean may have fired off all or nearly all of its stock of SM-3 missiles defending against the attack. US officials claimed 12 rounds were fired, with no assessment of successful interceptions. Clearly the task force was, at a minimum, simply overwhelmed by the sheer number of incoming vampires, to say nothing of the large amount of debris, booster fragments, and possibly decoys the missiles scattered in their wake.

Not only do USN missile destroyers only carry a small number of these rounds in their silos (generally eight or less) but their production rate is glacial - apparently Raytheon only made 12 of them in 2023. The cost of that engagement to the US taxpayer, by the way, could have been as much as $340 million dollars if those were Block IIA interceptors.

https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1842402475644514798?t=_JdVj2J5UYCISVhhuf-q5w&s=19

April Analysis

https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1780089205399650349?t=PKqBFXtr0qamzKn_ZQzVSg&s=19

Let's walk through Iran's strike on Israel two days ago. What's remarkable is much of the battle occurred in plain view but officials are still telling us not to believe our lying eyes.

The strike was much smaller than claimed and largely defeated Israel's missile defenses.⬇️

I'll preface this technical analysis with a political one - the balance of power in the Middle East shifted last weekend. Israeli military primacy has been a cornerstone of the region's politics for generations. That primacy no longer exists following the grinding campaign in Gaza and this Iranian attack. Israel can bleed and its regional enemies are clearly unafraid of its fury.

Now let's figure out what happened. Israeli officials claimed to have shot down "99%" of the attack, claiming to have downed over a hundred ballistic missiles, close to two hundred drones, and thirty-plus cruise missiles with only "trivial" damage inflicted to Nevatim Airfield in the Negev. The United States and Jordan - Israeli allies - echoed these claims. Video circulating online created the impression of ballistic missiles coming in across Israel, none of which seemed to have landed.

The desert can be a strange place. There's a known phenomenon in such hot and dry conditions where people will wildly underestimate how close distant objects are to them. Israel is a small country and atmospheric conditions during the attack were extraordinarily clear, leading to a situation in which observers across the country (and in fact outside it!) filmed a single flock of missiles diving on a target deep in the Negev and reported them as separate attacks across Israel. Burning white-hot from hypersonic reentry, the warheads were effectively large meteors and visible across much of the region. This single group of warheads appears to have constituted most of the ballistics fired by Iran and was the source of most of the extant footage of incoming Iranian missiles.

Don't believe me? Good, I wouldn't expect you to. Believe the videos instead. The stills below are from five separate videos that showed a good view of the missile stream - shot from Be'er Sheva, Shomron, Jerusalem, a location in the Negev, and Amman in Jordan. All of them capture a single moment when one of the rearmost warheads sloughed off a bright piece of material as it reentered the atmosphere at hypersonic speed, creating a distinctive double fireball. You can see immediately how the angle of the warhead stream changes between observers, with the observer in Amman basically looking at it from more of a rearward angle.

When the fog of war cleared there were three target areas identified as having actually been struck - the Nevatim and Ramon airbases in the Negev and a site in the Golan Heights. What's quite interesting is that this group of warheads was widely - and incorrectly - reported as diving on Nevatim. It actually came in at Ramon, much further south. This can be immediately verified by comparing the frame from Be'er Sheva with those from the Jerusalem area. If this attack had struck Nevatim, observers in Be'er Sheva would have been looking straight at it and instead they saw it from much the same angle as more northernly observers.

I've prepared a graphic illustrating this - compare the angle at which observers in Be'er Sheva, Jerusalem, and Amman would have seen warheads diving on Nevatim vis-a-vis Ramon.

There's more footage out there showing multiple warheads hitting Ramon despite intense fire from anti-missile batteries (I'll post one of the videos in a reply), and it's very telling that we haven't actually gotten any satellite photos or firm announcements about damage at that base. If Nevatim was struck by ballistics at all it was by one of two warheads that attacked south of Jerusalem in a separate, smaller group from the one pictured above - the same ones, I believe, that were dramatically photographed over the Knesset.

The Israelis released a small amount of footage from Nevatim. Given the limited cratering observed at the base it's likely a cluster warhead of some kind was employed. US officials have claimed a C-130 was damaged on the ground, again suggesting something of a shotgun blast that peppered the ramp and which was not visible on the low-quality satellite photos released yesterday.

Now let's work through what else happened that night that we could observe. There was a large Grad volley from Hezbollah in Lebanon, leading to Iron Dome firing in the north of the country, and Iron Dome fired in Ashkelon for reasons unknown despite a lack of reported fire from Gaza. An Israeli corvette in Eilat harbor engaged and shot down a drone (probably launched from Yemen), and video of a single target being destroyed in outer space by an Arrow III interceptor emerged (I suspect this was also against an older ballistic missile on a lofted trajectory fired from Yemen). A small amount of debris fell, injuring a civilian in Israel and killing three in Jordan.

There were also serious reports that the Golan Heights was hit, although no footage seems to have emerged of a strike there and - significantly - no footage of highly visible incoming ballistic warheads. The Iranians subsequently came out and stated they had targeted an Israeli surveillance site in the area. There have been rumors of significant damage and a press blackout.

The IAF subsequently released a video showing them downing eight Iranian drones (of a mixture of Shahed and Ababil types), although it's unclear from the footage if they were all actually shot down. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. For their part, the IRGC released three videos showing their end of the attack - one showing 22 ballistics launched, one showing eleven drones flown off, and another showing 22 cruise missiles launched. Observers in Iraq posted videos of a handful of ballistics moving out, and a single drone and cruise missile were filmed en route at treetop level, but there was no evidence on the "near" side of huge ballistic volleys or drone swarms.

So what are we to make of this? Well, here's one final data point - there were no reports, and no footage, of massive Israeli air defense launches with heavy missiles before ballistics appeared in the sky over Israel. This indicates that there was little in the way of a "midcourse" interception effort before the warheads became visible during reentry - most if not all of the battle was fought during the "terminal" phase against diving warheads. And, most significantly, most of what was launched from Iran arrived over Israel and dove on targets.

That defensive fire was spirited but unsuccessful - only a small number of the warheads filmed reentering appear to have been intercepted, with multiple confirmed hits caught on camera.

The conclusions to be drawn from the evidence are clear:
- Iran launched a few dozen missiles and drones, not hundreds
- Most of the ballistics fired penetrated air defenses
- Most of the ballistics fired were targeted at Ramon AB
- Nevatim AB was a secondary rather than primary target
- The Golan site was likely struck with cruise missiles
- It is unclear if a large number of drones were even launched
- Israeli "outer-layer" defense systems (read: Arrow) may be ineffective against modern Iranian missiles attacking on depressed trajectories
- Israeli claims about the size of the attack and the success of their defensive effort should not be taken seriously
- Iranian claims about their operational goals and targets should similarly be taken with a large grain of salt, a lot of what has come out of their camp seems to be supposition and speculation

With all of this in mind - and also bearing in mind that the Iranians seem to have little appetite for another round - the obvious path forward for Netanyahu is to declare victory and go home. He can spin the results of this strike into a victory via control of a pliant Western media apparatus, an obvious offramp crafted by the Iranians and being pushed by the US. What he should not do is seek further confrontation, because the Iranians have, I believe, now proven quite decisively that they can break Israeli missile defenses.

All these long analysis 5 days after sending 200 missiles indicate failure. When Isreal strikes it wont take 2 minutes to see the impact.

Ask Nasrallah, Ask Haniyeh and the rest

huptin:
All these long analysis 5 days after sending 200 missiles indicate failure. When Isreal strikes it wont take 2 minutes to see the impact.

Ask Nasrallah, Ask Haniyeh and the rest

Let's see if Israel will understand the message or if Bibi is suicidal

huptin:
All these long analysis 5 days after sending 200 missiles indicate failure. When Isreal strikes it wont take 2 minutes to see the impact.

Ask Nasrallah, Ask Haniyeh and the rest

For clarity. See the size of Israel compared with Iran. Israel can drop 6 nukes in Iran and Iran will still survive. Iran can drop 3 nuke in Israel and they are gone forever.

rottennaija:


For clarity. See the size of Israel compared with Iran. Israel can drop 6 nukes in Iran and Iran will still survive. Iran can drop 3 nuke in Israel and they are gone forever.

It depends on the size of the nuke and the efficiency of delivery.

Which aircraft would Iran use to deliver it, that won't be shut down?

Iran can only place a limited amount of nuclear material on missile delivery system.

Israel can deliver nuclear bomb via advance stealth aircraft and precision missiles.

Israel has over 90 and can quickly ramp up to 200.

To destroy the whole of Iran, Israel would need not up to 20!

Iran doesn't even have one yet and has not tested it's efficiency!

huptin:


It depends on the size of the nuke and the efficiency of delivery.

Which aircraft would Iran use to deliver it, that won't be shut down?

Iran can only place a limited amount of nuclear material on missile delivery system.

Israel can deliver nuclear bomb via advance stealth aircraft and precision missiles.

Israel has over 90 and can quickly ramp up to 200.

To destroy the whole of Iran, Israel would need not up to 20!

Iran doesn't even have one yet and has not tested it's efficiency!

The area occupied by Israel is a plane land. Most of Iran is filled with mountains and rocky place, added to its shear size. It also seems you are unaware that strategy nuclear bombs, the sort that level cities are delivered via ballistic missiles (the sort Iran uses) not planes. Of course Israel has some Jericho missile for that. It also seems you are unaware that Pakistan will willing give Iran their nuclear bombs if Israel threatens Iran with it. Lastly, it seems you are unaware that daily, Russia is sending weapons to Iran and is also manning Iran's Air Defense.

It's seem you are living in lalaland. I'll leave you in the to it.

rottennaija:

The area occupied by Israel is a plane land. Most of Iran is filled with mountains and rocky place, added to its shear size. It also seems you are unaware that strategy nuclear bombs, the sort that level cities are delivered via ballistic missiles (the sort Iran uses) not planes. Of course Israel has some Jericho missile for that. It also seems you are unaware that Pakistan will willing give Iran their nuclear bombs if Israel threatens Iran with it. Lastly, it seems you are unaware that daily, Russia is sending weapons to Iran and is also manning Iran's Air Defense.

It's seem you are living in lalaland. I'll leave you in the to it.

You know something about Israel? They don’t do well in the act of boasting….when they talk every one listen.

Whether Iran will wipe them out or not….Lets wait.

huptin:


You know something about Israel? They don’t do well in the act of boasting….when they talk every one listen.

Whether Iran will wipe them out or not….Lets wait.

Israel boost more than anymore

huptin:


It depends on the size of the nuke and the efficiency of delivery.

Which aircraft would Iran use to deliver it, that won't be shut down?

Iran can only place a limited amount of nuclear material on missile delivery system.

Israel can deliver nuclear bomb via advance stealth aircraft and precision missiles.

Israel has over 90 and can quickly ramp up to 200.

To destroy the whole of Iran, Israel would need not up to 20!

Iran doesn't even have one yet and has not tested it's efficiency!

You see this image below, this ballistic missiles can carry warheads bigger than what F35 can carry. F35 or F16 will take at least 2 hours to fit from Israel to striking distance within Iran (or go deep into Iran to strike important target) with refueling. Note, with refueling.

So if Iran send say 200 (and 80 makes through), that's a higher impact than 50 F35 and f16 combine strikes. And be rest assured, some of the jets will be lost. But then, before they can return to their bases, very likely, those bases will be gone.

Iran's ballastic missile will reach Israel within 10mins. Hypersonics will reach in less than 4mins.

rottennaija:


You see this image below, this ballistic missiles can carry warheads bigger than what F35 can carry. F35 or F16 will take at least 2 hours to fit from Israel to striking distance within Iran (or go deep into Iran to strike important target) with refueling. Note, with refueling.

So if Iran send say 200 (and 80 makes through), that's a higher impact than 50 F35 and f16 combine strikes. And be rest assured, some of the jets will be lost. But then, before they can return to their bases, very likely, those bases will be gone.

Iran's ballastic missile will reach Israel within 10mins. Hypersonics will reach in less than 4mins.

Ok that’s how you people always over rate Iran, we leave the rest to Israel, they never disappoint.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eI_YVJn7ks?si=uaDBtu9UlAIYh-re

Why Was Iran's Strike Against Israel So Successful?

huptin:

rottennaija post=132311932:


You see this image below, this ballistic missiles can carry warheads bigger than what F35 can carry. F35 or F16 will take at least 2 hours to fit from Israel to striking distance within Iran (or go deep into Iran to strike important target) with refueling. Note, with refueling.

So if Iran send say 200 (and 80 makes through), that's a higher impact than 50 F35 and f16 combine strikes. And be rest assured, some of the jets will be lost. But then, before they can return to their bases, very likely, those bases will be gone.

Iran's ballastic missile will reach Israel within 10mins. Hypersonics will reach in less than 4mins.

Ok that’s how you people always over rate Iran, we leave the rest to Israel, they never disappoint.

When I wrote the quoted, it was as if I saw it somewhere. But I didn't. I just reasoned based on my observations.

Watch Scott Ritter's response to lack of Israeli response to Iran. Slide to around 44 minutes, that's where the question was asked and see his response.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcaRCR7KKEQ?si=fYaWemt7Qg1gERUJ